The Desk Record

How the desk's reads have scored against the actual close. Calibration, never a promise of future results.

Validated after each session by The Nightcap White-Cap
OuroTaurus seal, bull and ouroboros
245
Setups scored
64%
Decisive hit-rate
132
Fired
74
Voided
36
Mixed
2
Awaiting close

Each session's market-read setups are scored against the actual close: Fired (the read played out), Voided (it did not), Mixed, or No evidence. The decisive hit-rate is Fired ÷ (Fired + Voided) across 206 decisive outcomes; Mixed and No-evidence calls are excluded. Setups are illustrative market reads, never trade recommendations.

By session

80 sessions
DateEditionRegimeSetupsFiredVoidMixedPending
Aug 5, 2026The Early Bird CurdRate-relief rotation at MEDIUM confidence74030
Aug 5, 2026The Midday FrappéDistribution day at MODERATE conviction11000
Aug 4, 2026The Early Bird CurdRisk-on growth at MEDIUM confidence43100
Aug 4, 2026The Midday FrappéTREND DAY11000
Aug 3, 2026The Early Bird CurdNeutral mixed at LOW classifier confidence (…64200
Aug 3, 2026The Midday FrappéTREND DAY UP10010
Aug 2, 2026The Sunday SundaeTwo Markets30102
Jul 31, 2026The Early Bird CurdNeutral mixed at LOW classifier confidence97110
Jul 31, 2026The Midday FrappéReflation cyclical10100
Jul 30, 2026The Early Bird CurdRisk-on growth66000
Jul 30, 2026The Midday FrappéMidday 07-30 (~12:18-12:35 ET00000
Jul 29, 2026The Early Bird CurdENERGY SUPPLY SHOCK INTO A FEDERAL RESERVE D…74300
Jul 29, 2026The Midday FrappéMidday 07-29 (~12:20-12:29 ET11000
Jul 28, 2026The Early Bird CurdAI-COMPLEX DE-RATE55000
Jul 28, 2026The Midday FrappéMidday 07-28 (~12:26 ET11000
Jul 27, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-ON RELIEF21100
Jul 27, 2026The Midday FrappéROTATION WEARING A SELLOFF00000
Jul 24, 2026The Early Bird CurdSHOCK UNWIND43100
Jul 23, 2026The Early Bird CurdINFLATION SHOCK66000
Jul 23, 2026The Midday FrappéINFLATION SHOCK11000
Jul 22, 2026The Early Bird CurdROTATION62220
Jul 22, 2026The Midday FrappéGRIND-UP00000
Jul 21, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-ON GROWTH75200
Jul 21, 2026The Midday FrappéRISK-ON GROWTH00000
Jul 20, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-ON GROWTH41210
Jul 20, 2026The Midday FrappéNARROW11000
Jul 19, 2026The Sunday SundaeAI de-rating inside a healthy market20200
Jul 17, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-OFF103340
Jul 16, 2026The Early Bird CurdROTATION105500
Jul 16, 2026The Midday FrappéRotation/dispersion continuation at midday10100
Jul 14, 2026The Midday FrappéRisk-on but NARROW rotation day32100
Jul 13, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-OFF86020
Jul 10, 2026The Early Bird CurdROTATION105500
Jul 9, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-ON REBOUND109100
Jul 9, 2026The Midday FrappéRISK-ON21100
Jul 8, 2026The Midday FrappéRANGE21100
Jul 7, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY21100
Jul 7, 2026The Midday FrappéRANGE22000
Jul 6, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY20110
Jul 5, 2026The Sunday SundaeRotation-Led Grind at the Highs32100
Jul 2, 2026The Early Bird Curdchoppy / event-gated half-day into June jobs…21010
Jul 2, 2026The Midday FrappéRANGE22000
Jul 1, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY20200
Jul 1, 2026The Midday FrappéROTATION DAY21010
Jun 30, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY21100
Jun 30, 2026The Midday FrappéTrending bull (narrow): semis/megacap-led gr…21100
Jun 29, 2026The Early Bird Curdchoppy / oversold-growth snapback, narrow &…21100
Jun 29, 2026The Midday FrappéTREND DAY21100
Jun 28, 2026The Sunday SundaeRotational Pullback / Growth-Wobble31110
Jun 26, 2026The Early Bird Curdchoppy risk-off / megacap-growth de-risk, ro…31110
Jun 26, 2026The Midday FrappéTREND DAY21010
Jun 25, 2026The Early Bird Curdrisk-on relief rally / AI-trade reset, event…20200
Jun 25, 2026The Midday FrappéRANGE DAY21010
Jun 24, 2026The Early Bird Curdrange-bound stabilization / bounce attempt10010
Jun 24, 2026The Midday Frappétrend-up broadening risk-on bounce20110
Jun 23, 2026The Early Bird Curdrisk-off rotation42100
Jun 23, 2026The Midday Frappérange-bound22000
Jun 22, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY31110
Jun 22, 2026The Midday FrappéRANGE DAY22000
Jun 21, 2026The Sunday SundaeCapped / Hawkish-Overhang30210
Jun 18, 2026The Early Bird Curdchoppy20200
Jun 18, 2026The Midday Frappérange-bound10100
Jun 17, 2026The Early Bird Curdrange-bound21100
Jun 17, 2026The Midday Frappérange-bound21100
Jun 16, 2026The Early Bird CurdRANGE-BOUND31200
Jun 16, 2026The Midday FrappéRANGE-BOUND21010
Jun 15, 2026The Sunday SundaeREPAIRED-BUT-CAPPED21100
Jun 15, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-ON RELIEF32100
Jun 12, 2026The Early Bird CurdRISK-ON21100
Jun 11, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY31110
Jun 10, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY21100
Jun 10, 2026The Midday FrappéCHOPPY10100
Jun 9, 2026The Early Bird CurdCHOPPY10010
Jun 3, 2026The Early Bird CurdTRENDING BULL31020
Jun 2, 2026The Early Bird CurdTRENDING BULL42020
Jun 1, 2026The Early Bird CurdTRENDING BULL31020
May 31, 2026The Sunday SundaeTRENDING BULL42020
May 28, 2026The Early Bird CurdTRENDING BULL42100
May 27, 2026The Early Bird CurdTRENDING BULL31200
May 26, 2026The Early Bird CurdTRENDING BULL40300