Three open setups from Thursday morning's Early Bird Curd, all gated on the 8:30 AM producer-price release, scored against the actual close. May PPI printed +1.1% month-over-month against a +0.7% consensus — decisively hot confirmed (BLS / CNBC; consensus TradingEconomics / Dow Jones).
| Setup | Outcome | Evidence | Δ-ATR | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRB L SPY/QQQ mm-260611-LRB-SPY-L | FIRE | The hot PPI never broke the floor — SPY's low of 724.41 held the 722.59 kill level and QQQ's 695.00 held 686.37. The reclaim then fired and held: SPY closed 737.76 (+1.70%, high 740.00), QQQ 717.12 (+3.38%). The 1:30 PM Iran de-escalation accelerated a move already underway. | 0.84 | 737.76confirmed (Yahoo EOD · web Tier-2) |
| MS L SMH/NVDA/AVGO mm-260611-MS-SMH-L | MIXED | The hot-PPI kill fired at 8:30 — discipline said stand aside — but the thesis ran without us: SMH +6.75% to 609.45, closing near its 611.62 high with no fade off the open; NVDA +2.22% and AVGO +3.62% never rolled red; Oracle's −8.53% did not spread to the complex. | —zone setup, no level | 609.45confirmed (Yahoo EOD · web Tier-2) |
| LRT S SPY/QQQ mm-260611-LRT-SPY-S | VOID | The reclaim kill triggered exactly as written — SPY closed 737.76 above the 737 band and QQQ 717.12 above 712, on broad participation (equal-weight +1.56%, small caps +2.96%, 8 of 11 sectors green). The soft-PPI kill never armed; the pop into the band held instead of rejecting. | 0.08 | 737.76confirmed (Yahoo EOD · web Tier-2) |
Backfilled this run: none — the backlog was already clear. Still open (interim windows): none. SPY ATR(14) used for Δ-ATR: 9.26, computed from daily bars through 2026-06-11.
NO_EVIDENCE data-feed gaps on record: mm-260526-MS-multi-S and mm-260528-VSR-SPY-L (legacy single-name / breadth gaps from the late-May briefs).
| Pattern | Dir | n | Hit rate | Mean prob | Mean Brier | Evidence class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRT | S | 7 | 57% | 0.40 | 0.379 | lore_pending |
| MS | L | 7 | 29% | 0.54 | 0.361 | lore_pending |
| SRB | L | 5 | 60% | 0.40 | 0.293 | lore_pending |
| SBD | S | 4 | 0% | 0.28 | 0.079 | primary_source |
| GFD | L | 2 | 50% | 0.45 | 0.205 | practitioner_backtest |
| LRB | L | 1 | 100% | 0.45 | 0.303 | lore_pending |
| GFU | S | 1 | 0% | 0.70 | 0.490 | retired_refuted |
| SRT | S | 1 | 0% | 0.70 | 0.490 | lore_pending |
| VAB | L | 1 | 0% | 0.50 | 0.250 | lore_pending |
| VSR | L | 1 | 0% | 0.35 | 0.122 | lore_pending |
Pattern code gloss (tonight's setups): LRB — Level Rejection at Bottom · LRT — Level Rejection at Top · MS — Momentum Scalp. Hit rate counts FIRE outcomes; for short patterns a FIRE means the downside thesis was confirmed.
06-08 was the 14-setup backfill batch; 06-12 is tonight's run (3 setups, validating the 06-11 session).
SPY 737.76 +1.70% (open 728.76 · low 724.41 · high 740.00) · QQQ 717.12 +3.38% · IWM 290.41 +2.96% · RSP 209.75 +1.56% confirmed (Yahoo EOD · web Tier-2)
VIX 19.44 (−2.78 vs Wednesday's 22.22) confirmed (Cboe via Yahoo · close only) · 10-year Treasury 4.46% (−8 bp) confirmed (Yahoo ^TNX)
The session ran in two acts. Act one: May producer prices printed hot at 8:30 (+1.1% month-over-month vs +0.7% consensus, +6.5% year-over-year — final-demand goods rose 2.8%, the largest monthly increase in the series' history), and the tape absorbed it — SPY opened lower at 728.76, probed 724.41 within the first hour, and held above Tuesday's 722.59 floor. Act two: around 1:30 PM the President pulled planned Iran strikes and announced ceasefire terms with a group of Gulf states; oil collapsed, the geopolitical overhang lifted, and the tape trended for the rest of the day, with SPY tagging 740.00 before settling at 737.76 and the Nasdaq complex leading throughout.
Realized regime: morning chop resolving into a broad trend-up after 1:30 PM — a geopolitical-relief rally on top of an absorbed inflation shock. The morning brief's "choppy, event-gated" classification held for the first four hours, then broke decisively bullish on the headline.
USO 128.83 −4.07% (WTI fell roughly 4% and broke below $90) · GLD 386.32 +3.13% · TLT 85.98 +1.30% · HYG 79.94 +0.59% · UUP 27.95 −0.36% confirmed (Yahoo EOD · web Tier-2); WTI move per Stocktwits Daily Rip close
Oil was the day's release valve: the de-escalation took roughly four percent out of crude in the afternoon, and that single move re-priced the inflation picture more powerfully than the morning's hot print had priced it in. The bond market agreed — the 10-year yield fell eight basis points to 4.46% on the same day producer prices surprised hot, because the energy impulse driving that print was visibly reversing. Gold's +3.13% looks contradictory to a risk-on day but tracks the softer dollar and falling real yields; credit (HYG +0.59%) confirmed the equity move.
8 green / 3 red · the red tiles are the defensive pair (staples, real estate) plus energy — risk-off insurance being unwound, not weakness. Equal-weight (+1.56%) trailed cap-weight (+1.70%) modestly while small caps (+2.96%) and the Nasdaq (+3.38%) led, so the rally was tech-led but broadly attended. Intraday breadth internals (advance-decline, TICK, TRIN, S&P percent-above-50-day) were not pulled this run — no setup leg was gated on them tonight.
Oracle (ORCL 184.10, −8.53%) — fiscal Q4 EPS beat ($2.11 vs $2.00) but revenue missed ($19.18B vs $19.48B expected) with remaining performance obligations at $638B. The market's question in one ticker: the AI backlog is real, but financing the capacity to serve it is not free. Thursday's premarket −8.7% never recovered. confirmed (Yahoo EOD); earnings detail per Stocktwits Daily Rip close
Adobe (ADBE −6.2% regular, ~−5.8% after hours) — beat estimates and raised full-year guidance after the bell, and fell anyway; every software print is being treated as an AI-survival test, and the CFO exit amplified the leadership question. est. (Stocktwits Daily Rip close — after-hours figure)
Semiconductors (SMH 609.45, +6.75%; NVDA +2.22%; AVGO +3.62%) — the beaten-down complex led the whole tape off Wednesday's lows; Oracle's capex anxiety stayed quarantined to the names carrying the bill. confirmed (Yahoo EOD)
SpaceX IPO — priced Thursday night: 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135, raising roughly $75B at a near-$2T valuation, listing on the Nasdaq Friday. Public space proxies became the chase: RDW +20%, ASTS +16%, SATS +13%, RKLB +12%. est. (Stocktwits Daily Rip close / Axios Closer)
Thursday's Early Bird Curd framed the day as choppy and event-gated on the 8:30 producer-price release, with the battlefield mapped precisely: the 722.59 / 686.37 floor as the kill line, the 730 / 700 reclaim as the long trigger, and the 737–738 / 707–712 band as the short's rejection zone. The tape used every one of those levels — the morning low probed 724.41 and held the floor, the reclaim fired and held, and the day closed by burying the short's band from above. What the lens could not see was the 1:30 PM geopolitical pivot that turned a level reclaim into a trend day; the brief's defensive tilt was right for four hours and wrong for the last two and a half. The semis-bounce read (beaten-down names leading premarket) was directionally correct all day — it was the blanket hot-PPI kill, not the read, that kept the setup sidelined.