| Setup | Outcome | Evidence | Δ-ATR | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRT S SPY/QQQ/IWM mm-260609-LRT-SPY-S | MIXED | Cap-weight leg fired — SPY poked to 746.90 (> the 745.34 level) and QQQ to 725.66, then both printed rejection candles and closed red (737.05 / 707.83), dragged by XLK −1.85% and the semis. BUT the defining breadth-failure precondition voided: 9 of 11 sectors closed green, RSP +0.76%, IWM +0.32% — a broadening rotation, not a failing tape. The breadth_broadens_9of11 kill triggered. | 1.16 | 737.05 / 707.83 / 285.02 |
Roughly flat vs the prior validated run (Brier ~0.32): today's MIXED added one calibration-eligible non-hit, nudging the eligible-based hit rate. No new NO_EVIDENCE feed gaps this run — though VIX, the breadth internals (S5FI / S5TH / ADRN / TICK / TRIN) and the precise 10y level remain unentitled and were not scored.
| Index (proxy) | Close | Day | Range (L–H) | Close vs range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 737.05 | −0.29% | 722.59–746.90 | upper half — crawled back |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | 707.83 | −1.15% | 686.37–725.66 | mid-range — rejected the highs |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 285.02 | +0.32% | 277.62–290.87 | upper half — small-caps green |
| Equal-weight S&P (RSP) | 209.19 | +0.76% | 205.74–210.36 | near the high — broad bid |
| Dow 30 (DIA) | 509.41 | +0.10% | 503.08–513.54 | upper half — green |
The session was a roller coaster that resolved up the middle. Continued post-payrolls, rate-hike repricing drove a sharp morning flush — chip giants AMD and Intel fell more than 8% intraday before closing down roughly 3% and 2% (Axios Closer), and the semis proxy printed a low near −7% — then the tape crawled back through the afternoon as breadth widened. The cap-weighted S&P closed −0.3% (Axios dashboard, confirmed), but that red headline masked a session where the equal-weight index (RSP +0.76%) and small-caps (IWM +0.32%) finished green.
The rate signal flipped intraday: long Treasuries (TLT) closed +0.59%, i.e. yields eased into the bell rather than extending the morning's hawkish fear. The precise 10-year level and the VIX are not available from an entitled source (⟳ refresh required); TLT is the confirmed rate proxy. The Federal Reserve remains in its pre-meeting blackout into the June 16–17 FOMC.
| Asset (proxy) | Close | Day | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | 85.12 | +0.59% | yields eased into the close — morning rate scare un-wound |
| High-yield credit (HYG) | 79.62 | +0.10% | calm — no credit stress |
| Crude oil (USO) | 131.30 | −2.85% | crude sold — the drag under energy |
| Gold (GLD) | 390.78 | −1.63% | haven bid faded as equities recovered |
| US dollar (UUP) | 28.01 | −0.07% | flat |
| Bitcoin (BITO) | 8.44 | −2.09% | risk trimmed at the speculative fringe |
| Volatility (VIX index) | ⟳ refresh required | not confirmed from an entitled source | |
The cross-asset board says rotation, not risk-off. Bonds were bid (yields eased), credit stayed calm, and the dollar was flat — none of the signatures of a genuine flight to safety. Instead the selling concentrated in crowded trades: commodities (crude −2.85%, gold −1.63%) and crypto (−2.09%) came off while the broad equity tape firmed. Soft crude is the through-line to energy's red sector close.
9 of 11 sectors closed green — the breadth broadening that defined the session. Rate-sensitives led (real estate +2.13%, utilities +1.06%), helped by the intraday drop in yields, alongside the cyclical complex (materials +1.62%, industrials +1.13%, financials +0.94%). Only technology (XLK −1.85%) and energy (XLE −1.61%) finished red — tech on the megacap/semis flush, energy on soft crude. The equal-weight index outpacing the cap-weight (RSP +0.76% vs SPY −0.29%) is the broadening stated in one number.
Internals panel (S5FI / S5TH / ADRN / TICK / TRIN): ⟳ refresh required — not entitled via the current data sources; the 9/11 SPDR count and the RSP-vs-SPY spread are the confirmed breadth reads this run.
The tech roller coaster was the headline. Chip names flushed hard then crawled back: AMD and Intel fell more than 8% intraday before closing near −3% and −2%; optical-networking names took the worst of it — Coherent ended −11% and Lumentum −8% (Axios Closer). The semis basket closed −1.20% (SMH, off a −7% intraday low) and Nvidia finished essentially flat at −0.22% after trading down roughly −4.5% — the whipsaw-and-recover that powered the index crawl-back.
Idiosyncratic moves around it: Apple fell −3.64% as the WWDC Siri reveal kept selling the news ("No One Likes Siri," Daily Rip). Supermicro dropped −7.62% on a secondary-offering dilution. On the green side, J.M. Smucker jumped +10.4% on an earnings beat (Axios "stock spotlight"), and Oracle firmed +1.27% into its own AI-earnings test (the Daily Rip's "next AI exam").
The morning Curd framed a CHOPPY post-shock regime and a relief-rally-versus-dead-cat inflection at Monday's range highs, carrying a single conditional level-rejection short (fade only on a rejection candle plus a breadth failure). Reality tipped to the relief/broadening branch of that inflection: the indices poked above Monday's highs (SPY 746.90, QQQ 725.66), the cap-weight names rejected and closed red — the morning's caution earned its keep there — but breadth broadened to 9/11 green, the equal-weight and small-caps led, and bonds un-wound the rate scare. The dead-cat-failure path the short needed never armed.